Saturday, April 2, 2011

U.S. Weighs More Libya Moves

[LIBARMS_SUB] Associated Press

A rebel scans the front lines with his binoculars near Brega on Friday.

WASHINGTON—The White House asked the Pentagon and Central Intelligence Agency to propose ways the U.S. can ramp up its assistance to rebels battling Libyan Col. Moammar Gadhafi—beginning with shipments of nonlethal equipment such as communications gear, and potentially escalating to large-scale transfers of weapons.

The administration is taking a cautious approach because of doubts the ragtag opposition can turn the tide in Tripoli. Arming the rebels "is certainly an idea that's being discussed, the pros and the cons," said one military official, but it remains a move officials would prefer to avoid. The idea has provoked opposition from within the Pentagon in particular.

Sam Dagher reports from Tripoli that Libya's rebels said they will agree to a cease-fire if Col. Moammar Gadhafi pulls his military forces out of cities and allows peaceful protests against his regime.

Supplying the rebel army, even if only with nonlethal equipment, would expand Washington's role in the conflict even as President Barack Obama scales back day-to-day U.S. involvement in enforcing a no-fly zone and attacking Col. Gadhafi's forces. The White House has sought to portray the U.S. involvement from the outset as limited in scope and duration, but the discussions suggest at least the possibility of a longer-term commitment.

Officials said the Obama administration favored an incremental approach to aiding the rebels, reflecting their assessment that Col. Gadhafi is more likely to be overthrown by members of his own inner circle before the opposition fighters are capable of seizing Tripoli.

Still, officials believe even limited, nonlethal U.S. support for the rebels could be helpful, increasing the chances that can hold their positions as the West waits for the protective network around Col. Gadhafi's to unwind. In addition to communications equipment, aid could come in the form of cash from frozen Gadhafi assets to buy supplies.

U.S. officials believe Col. Gadhafi's isolation in Tripoli is increasing, noting the defection of his foreign minister and others, as well as citing what they say are signs other high-level officials close to Col. Gadhafi are in talks with Western and Arab diplomats about abandoning the regime.

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A rebel rested before leaving Ajdabiya, Libya, Friday.

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Optimism in Washington about divisions in Tripoli has been tempered by concerns about Col. Gadhafi's change in battlefield tactics. When the campaign against Col. Gadhafi began March 19, his forces were out in the open in columns that were relatively easy to identity. Now, Col. Gadhafi's forces are using civilian vehicles and hiding in civilian areas, making it harder for the U.S. and its allies to strike.

"We are confronted [with] a real mess on the ground," a senior European military official said of the difficulty differentiating Col. Gadhafi's forces from the rebels, whom he described as "very poor" combatants. Officials say the rebels are poorly armed compared with Col. Gadhafi's forces.

From the start, the Obama administration has moved cautiously to engage with the rebels, citing the need to develop a fuller picture of their intentions and capabilities. Officials say they don't have enough information yet about the nature of the rebel forces to decide whether to arm them. Officials worry weapons could end up in the hands of anti-American Islamists, who have played only a small, behind-the-scenes role in the opposition but could assert themselves later.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has fostered ties with Mahmoud Jibril, the de facto foreign minister for a rebel council. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, by contrast, has made clear he doesn't think much of the idea of working closely with the group's frontline fighters.

In testimony Thursday, Mr. Gates held open the possibility that another country could help organize the opposition into a more cohesive force. "That's not a unique capability for the United States. And as far as I'm concerned, somebody else should do that."

Mr. Gates's comments reflect U.S. doubts that military aid to untrained rebel forces will make a difference on the battlefield, regardless of how much Col. Gadhafi's military capabilities have been degraded by airstrikes.

The range of options being drawn up for assisting the rebels will be based in part on assessments by small teams of covert CIA operatives on the ground in eastern Libya, officials said.

—Nathan Hodge contributed to this article.

Write to Adam Entous at adam.entous@wsj.com and Keith Johnson at keith.johnson@wsj.com

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